**Insurance Abstract**
An insurance premium rate setting support system is composed of
a computer and includes: a probability-increase/strong-influence
location coefficient setting section which sets a probability-increase/strong-influence
location coefficient by obtaining the coefficient based on a predetermined
function; and an earthquake insurance premium rate computation section
which computes an insurance premium rate where an increase in the
earthquake occurrence probability, based on the estimated strain
accumulation, is reflected by multiplying together the set probability-increase/strong-influence
location coefficient and an insurance premium rate where the increase
in the earthquake occurrence probability, based on the estimated
strain accumulation, is not reflected.
**Insurance Claims**
1. An insurance premium rate setting support system composed of
a computer, and comprising: probability-increase/strong-influence
location coefficient setting means which, if an inputted location
covered by earthquake insurance is specified as a probability-increase/strong-influence
location located in any one of an area for which an earthquake occurrence
probability has increased to not less than a predetermined probability
based on estimated strain accumulation along at least one of a plate
boundary and a fault due to a period having elapsed since a past
earthquake occurrence, and an area having a risk of being strongly
influenced by an earthquake occurrence in the area for which the
earthquake occurrence probability has increased to not less than
the predetermined probability, sets a probability-increase/strong-influence
location coefficient by obtaining said coefficient based on a predetermined
function whereby said coefficient increases in a stepwise manner
following an increasing characteristic of an earthquake occurrence
probability with respect to a period having elapsed since the past
earthquake occurrence in the location covered by the earthquake
insurance; and earthquake insurance premium rate computation means
which computes an insurance premium rate where an increase in the
earthquake occurrence probability, based on said estimated strain
accumulation, is reflected, by multiplying together said set probability-increase/strong-influence
location coefficient and an insurance premium rate where the increase
in the earthquake occurrence probability, based on said estimated
strain accumulation, is not reflected.
2. The insurance premium rate setting support system according
to claim 1, further comprising: earthquake insurance covered-location
judgment means which judges whether an inputted location covered
by earthquake insurance is a probability-increase/strong-influence
location located in any one of an area for which an earthquake occurrence
probability has increased to not less than a predetermined probability
based on estimated strain accumulation along at least one of a plate
boundary and a fault due to a period having elapsed since a past
earthquake occurrence, and an area having a risk of being strongly
influenced by an earthquake occurrence in the area for which the
earthquake occurrence probability has increased to not less than
the predetermined probability, and which, if a result of the judgment
is that the inputted location is the probability-increase/strong-influence
location, designates the intent to said probability-increase/strong-influence
location coefficient setting means.
3. The insurance premium rate setting support system according
to claim 1, further comprising: insurance premium rate selection-purpose
output means which outputs the insurance premium rate computed by
said earthquake insurance premium rate computation means, and the
insurance premium rate where said increase in the earthquake occurrence
probability is not reflected, and which thereby allows a purchaser
of the insurance to purchase the insurance with one of the foregoing
insurance premium rates, the one being spontaneously selected by
the purchaser.
4. An insurance premium rate setting support system composed of
a computer, and comprising: traveling time range judgment means
which judges whether or not an inputted time range of traveling
in a journey covered by travel accident insurance is a moon influence
time range falling in a predetermined time period, around any one
of a moonrise and a moonset in a location visited during the traveling,
during which an earthquake occurrence probability for the location
increases to not less than a predetermined probability; moon influence
coefficient setting means which sets a moon influence coefficient
of the journey if the time range of traveling is said moon influence
time range; and travel accident insurance premium rate computation
means which computes an insurance premium rate where an increase
in the earthquake occurrence probability around one of said moonrise
and said moonset is reflected, by multiplying together said set
moon influence coefficient and an insurance premium rate where said
increase in the earthquake occurrence probability around one of
said moonrise and said moonset is not reflected.
5. The insurance premium rate setting support system according
to claim 4, wherein said moon influence coefficient setting means
sets said moon influence coefficient based on a predetermined function
whereby said coefficient decreases in a stepwise manner following
a decreasing characteristic of an earthquake occurrence probability
with respect to a periodical distance of a time within said predetermined
time period from said one of said moonrise and moonset.
6. The insurance premium rate setting support system according
to claim 4, further comprising: insurance premium rate selection-purpose
output means which outputs an insurance premium rate computed by
said travel accident insurance premium rate computation means, and
an insurance premium rate where said increase in the earthquake
occurrence probability is not reflected, and which thereby allows
a purchaser of the insurance to purchase the insurance with one
of the foregoing insurance premium rates, the one being spontaneously
selected by the purchaser.
7. The insurance premium rate setting support system according
to claim 2, further comprising: insurance premium rate selection-purpose
output means which outputs the insurance premium rate computed by
said earthquake insurance premium rate computation means, and the
insurance premium rate where said increase in the earthquake occurrence
probability is not reflected, and which thereby allows a purchaser
of the insurance to purchase the insurance with one of the foregoing
insurance premium rates, the one being spontaneously selected by
the purchaser.
8. The insurance premium rate setting support system according
to claim 5, further comprising: insurance premium rate selection-purpose
output means which outputs an insurance premium rate computed by
said travel accident insurance premium rate computation means, and
an insurance premium rate where said increase in the earthquake
occurrence probability is not reflected, and which thereby allows
a purchaser of the insurance to purchase the insurance with one
of the foregoing insurance premium rates, the one being spontaneously
selected by the purchaser.
**Insurance Description**
BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION
[0001] 1. Field of the Invention
[0002] This invention relates to a system which performs support
for setting insurance premium rates of non-life insurance, accident
insurance, and the like. In particular, this invention relates to
an insurance premium rate setting support system which performs
support for reasonably and effectively setting insurance premium
rates based on an evaluation of an earthquake occurrence probability.
[0003] 2. Description of the Related Art
[0004] In non-life insurance, which is defined herein as any insurance
not covering a person's life, insurance is not intended to pay for
an entire loss from an earthquake. However, in consideration of
earthquakes which occurred during the past 500 years, based on seismic
intensities, building destructions, destructions by fire, destructions
by tsunami, and the like in those earthquakes, damages from an earthquake
are calculated assuming that the same earthquake as the Great Kanto
Earthquake occurs. Additionally, an insurance payout is calculated
in consideration of a state of earthquake insurance contracts.
[0005] On the other hand, earthquake insurance has meaning in terms
of social policy, therefore insurance companies are required to
institute a mechanism referred to as "a no-loss and no-profit
principle" whereby the companies neither gain profits nor suffer
losses. In this institution, in each year when there has been no
earthquake or when payouts have been so small in amount that surpluses
have been generated in the earthquake insurance, it is required
to accumulate, as a reserve, all of the surpluses. This accumulation
has been conducted for the past 30 years.
[0006] As apparent from damage by the Great Kanto Earthquake and
by the Great Hanshin Earthquake, damage from an earthquake has a
large regional scope, and results in an enormous amount of losses.
This brings about the necessity for the insurance companies to consider
revenue and expenditure on an extremely long term basis in increments
of 500 years. In accordance with this necessity, the necessity for
insurance companies to provide insurance in view of earthquakes,
besides insurance for losses which insurance companies can cover
only from the economical standpoint, has been considered since the
Meiji Era. Nevertheless, it was in the year 1965 with the wake of
the Niigata earthquake in June 1964 as a turning point that a mechanism
involving government fund injection was instituted and thereby underwriting
of the insurance was realized. However, once an earthquake occurs,
as one can easily expect, damages are huge. The mechanism is not
intended to cover the entire amount of damage. Additionally, the
mechanism has an aspect that, if an earthquake occurs before a sufficient
amount of insurance is accumulated, it becomes dysfunctional. With
the above background, in the case of the Great Hanshin Earthquake,
insurance payouts were made from a government fund in addition to
accumulated insurance.
[0007] In the case of the Great Hanshin Earthquake, concrete roadbeds
of railroads for the Shinkansen collapsed, and an express motorway
fell down due to collapse of supports thereof. Since the earthquake
occurred early in the morning, the time was before the first Shinkansen
train of the day would be operated, and before car traffic would
be congested. For these reasons, the Shinkansen did not sustain
damage of derailment and overturn, and as well, the motorway remained
with the minimum damage. In the case of the Chuetsu earthquake,
however, the Shinkansen was not able to avoid derailment although
an emergency stop system, which utilizes an arrival time difference
of P and S waves, went into operation. The state where a Shinkansen
train sustained only derailment without damage to its passengers
was lucky that it was not worse.
[0008] So far, the Shinkansens have achieved records of no accident
in past years. Then, despite of the experience with the Great Hanshin
Earthquake, it appears that safety of the Shinkansens has been appraised.
On the other hand, when the reality is faced, insurance is considered
to be an appropriate provision for the purpose of covering risks
both for a transport operating company and for users (passengers)
thereof. The same can be also applied to a situation of an individual
passenger. In reality, however, in the case of travel accident insurance,
damage from an earthquake is excluded from coverage. Based on the
background of no accident in the past since the start of operation
of the Shinkansens, there is a high possibility that damage to one
insured thereby will be caused by an earthquake. By taking that
high possibility into consideration, it may be considered that the
insurance ends up having no meaning.
[0009] A current situation is that a reliable prediction for an
earthquake occurrence is still far from being realized, and one
should not count on simply carrying out disaster prevention measures
by placing high expectations on the prediction. However, it has
been made possible to estimate a progress of strain accumulation
in an overall view as an earthquake occurrence possibility in a
future time period with reference to a past history of earthquake
occurrences. This issue is described for instance in "Kyodai
Jishin (Great Earthquake)" (written by Tsuneji Rikitake, published
in 1976 in the Blue Backs series by Kodansya Ltd.). Specifically,
as shown in FIG. 3, a probability that an earthquake having the
same level as the Great Kanto Earthquake occurs after the Great
Kanto Earthquake has been creeping up and is definitely increasing
since a time point immediately after the Great Kanto Earthquake.
The probability mentioned as above is estimated based on a history
regarding earthquake occurrences in surrounding areas of the past
and based on the number of years elapsed after the earthquake, in
consideration of various properties of earthquakes such as one generated
in association with a plate movement estimated in the Pacific Ocean
coastal region, and one generated by an active fault in an inland
region. FIG. 4 shows results announced by a government research
committee, and it is indicated therein that a probability of earthquake
occurrence has become considerably high in the South Kanto area.
This issue is described for instance in the Aug. 24, 2004 edition
of the Ashahi Shinbun.
[0010] Incidentally, it has been conventionally possible to obtain
earthquake insurance at the time of purchasing fire insurance, as
an addition to the fire insurance. Nevertheless, in a case of insuring
a house, an amount covered by earthquake insurance is limited to
the lower one of an amount limited to 50 million yen and 30 to 50%
of an amount covered by the fire insurance to which the earthquake
insurance is added. Moreover, insurance premium rates are defined
by the Property and Casualty Insurance Rating Organization as shown
in FIG. 5 corresponding to classification by 4 phases depending
on earthquake shaking intensities (seismic intensities) estimated
for all parts of the country, the intensities having been calculated
based on past earthquake histories of the respective parts. Table
1 as follows shows definitions corresponding to this classification
with respect to each building type. This issue is described for
instance in page 144 of "Gendai no Risk to Hoken (Modem Risk
and Insurance)" (written by Mitsutsune Yamaguchi, published
in 1988 by Iwanami-Shoten). TABLE-US-00001 TABLE 1 Earthquake insurance
premium rate table (insurance coverage of 1,000 yen per one year
of insurance term) Non-wooden Wooden Rank 1 area 0.50 yen 1.45 yen
Rank 2 area 0.70 yen 2.00 yen Rank 3 area 1.35 yen 2.80 yen Rank
4 area 1.75 yen 4.30 yen
[0011] Nevertheless, since, in the wake of an earthquake, specification
of concerned areas thereof is needed and an enormous amount of damages
is caused, the insurance mechanism thus defined cannot work as a
mechanism only with non-life insurance companies being responsible
for underwriting the insurance. Therefore, owing to reinsurance
therefor established by the Japanese government, the mechanism has
been made functional. In 1966 when earthquake insurance underwriting
was started, a total payout limit for one earthquake was 300 billion
yen. Since a total asset of the non-life insurance companies at
the time was 350 billion yen, it would have been impossible to start
earthquake insurance underwriting without a political measure of
the government.
[0012] In the total payout limit, the government and the non-life
insurers were set to bear 270 billion yen and 30 billion yen respectively.
In the recent years, the total payout limit has been raised to 3,700
billion yen, and shares therein of the government and the non-life
insurers have been set to be 3,197.45 billion yen and 502.55 billion
yen respectively. In the 30 years since the mechanism was instituted,
a reserve fund therefor had been accumulated to be 842 billion yen,
which is broken down into 478.6 billion yen by the government and
363.4 billion yen by the non-life insurers. Incidentally, the reinsurance
purchased by the government includes a condition that the reinsurance
is effective for damages of a predetermined amount or larger, and
it is reported that it was used for the first time when a total
amount of 78 billion yen was paid out in the occasion of the Great
Hanshin Earthquake. This issue is described for instance in the
chapter 3 of "Gendai no Risk to Hoken".
[0013] As mentioned hereinabove, there are a number of unsolved
problems relating to the mechanism of earthquake occurrence, and
there are problems in insurance coverage for damages caused by an
earthquake, including a problem that, since there involve uncertainty
of occurrence time thereof and the enormousness of damages caused
once the earthquake occurred, the insurance coverage does not work
without budgetary steps taken by the government. Even with these
problems, nevertheless, insurance is an essential countermeasure
for the purpose of keeping a reserve for and covering a risk from
an earthquake. With these taken into consideration, for an insured
one expecting risk aversion, for a non-life insurance company intending
to reasonably structure an insurance mechanism to acquire more insured
ones, and furthermore, for the government pressed to reduce a financial
burden as much as possible, essential requirements are: to structure
means for setting insurance premium rates as reasonably as possible
based on facts confirmed to be considerably reliable; to enhance
a penetration rate of earthquake insurance, which was only 12.6%
in the year 1996; and to structure a social constitution resistant
to disasters as reasonably as possible.
BRIEF SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION
[0014] Accordingly, when the inventor of the present application
examined a conventional method of setting insurance premium rates,
the following was found. Conventionally, as mentioned previously,
if a location covered by insurance is determined, an area rank is
determined according to FIG. 5 and then an insurance premium rate
is set depending on the area rank as shown in Table 1. Therefore,
in the conventional method, even in the areas as shown in FIG. 4
in each of which an earthquake occurrence probability is estimated
to have increased by strain accumulation along a plate boundary
or along a fault, insurance premium rates are set without consideration
of increases in the probabilities.
[0015] On the other hand, although it is difficult to accurately
estimate in what stage of the increases in the respective probabilities
are at the current point of time, it is, at present, possible to
show differences among earthquake occurrence probabilities of the
respective locations considerably in detail. Consequently, if this
point is taken into consideration, regardless of how coefficients
corresponding to increases in the probabilities are set to which
probabilities, it is considered reasonable that, as shown in FIG.
6, insurance premium rates be provided by setting stages for a coefficient
C1 regarding an increase in an earthquake occurrence probability
due to the strain accumulation as in the case with the area rank
assignment.
[0016] Furthermore, based on research conducted in recent years
by the inventor of the present application and others by studying
historical earthquakes according to "Rika Nenpyo (Chronological
Scientific Tables)" and by using astronomical software ("STELLA
NAVIGATOR" marketed by ASCII Corporation in 1997), it was found
that there is a phenomenon where an earthquake occurrence probability
becomes high during a time range when a direction of the moon from
the center of an earthquake is either east or west. This issue is
described for instance in "Jishin-hassei to Tsuki no Undou
tono Kanren, Ichi-kousatsu (One Consideration on Relationship between
Earthquake Occurrence and Movement of the Moon)" (written by
Hisayoshi Sato and three others in Collected Lectures and Papers
in the Mechanical Dynamics and the Instrument and Control Vol. A
in the Japan Society of Mechanical Engineers (No. 98-8 I), published
in 1998). Specifically, when an investigation on directions of the
moon, that is, locations of the moon in the sky viewed from the
centers of the earthquakes at the times of occurrences thereof was
conducted by using the above astronomical software with respect
to 871 samples in the year 1945 and after, and 1,080 samples from
the years 1900 to 1944 among large earthquakes having magnitudes
more than 7 described in "Rika Nenpyo," the results were
turned out as shown in FIGS. 7 and 8 respectively. In these drawings,
horizontal axes indicate directions of the moon and vertical axes
indicate earthquake occurrence probabilities, and in each of the
horizontal axes, "90 degrees" means "west,"
and "270 degrees" means "east." Both of the
drawings shows that, when the moon came to east and to west, earthquake
occurrence frequencies were higher, that is, earthquake occurrence
probabilities were made higher. Based on results of this investigation,
it can be said that, twice a day, an earthquake occurrence probability
increases during time ranges of moonrise and moonset.
[0017] A background for conducting the investigation comes from
an interest desiring to make clear what a triggering effect for
actually causing the break depends on, if it should be assumed that
an earthquake is a phenomenon where, after strains have been accumulated
on the earth's crust by plate movements, the land surrounding the
strains is broken when rocks thereof has reached their resistance
limits. In consideration of a mutual relationship between the earth
and the moon, and on the assumption that the center of an earthquakes
is located relatively to the earth, it is a qualitatively understandable
phenomenon that an external force due to gravity of the moon becomes
the largest in the center of the earthquake when the moon is situated
either in east or in west from the location thereof. Accordingly,
it is considered reasonable that, as shown in FIG. 9, a coefficient
C2 regarding an increase in an earthquake occurrence probability
due to a location of the moon be provided as in the case with the
area rank assignment.
[0018] An object of this invention is to advantageously solve the
problems in the conventional insurance premium rate setting method
in consideration of the above points. An insurance premium rate
setting support system of this invention is composed of a computer,
and includes: probability-increase/strong-influence location coefficient
setting means which, if an inputted covered location of earthquake
insurance is specified as a probability-increase/strong-influence
location located in any one of an area for which an earthquake occurrence
probability has increased to not less than a predetermined probability
based on estimated strain accumulation along at least one of a plate
boundary and a fault due to a period having elapsed since a past
earthquake occurrence, and an area having a risk of being strongly
influenced by an earthquake occurrence in the area for which the
earthquake occurrence probability has increased to not less than
the predetermined probability, which sets a probability-increase/strong-influence
location coefficient by obtaining it based on a predetermined function
whereby the coefficient increases in a stepwise manner following
an increasing characteristic of an earthquake occurrence probability
with respect to a period having elapsed since the past earthquake
occurrence in the location covered by the earthquake insurance;
and earthquake insurance premium rate computation means which computes
an insurance premium rate where the earthquake occurrence probability
increase, based on the estimated strain accumulation, is reflected,
by multiplying together the set probability-increase/strong-influence
location coefficient and an insurance premium rate where the earthquake
occurrence probability increase, based on the estimated strain accumulation,
is not reflected.
[0019] An insurance premium rate setting support system of this
invention is composed of a computer, and includes: traveling time
range judgment means for judging whether an inputted time range
of traveling in a covered journey of travel accident insurance is
a moon influence time range falling in a predetermined time period,
around any one of a moonrise and a moonset in a location visited
during the traveling, during which an earthquake occurrence probability
for the location increases to not less than a predetermined probability;
moon influence coefficient setting means for setting a moon influence
coefficient of the journey if the time range of traveling is the
moon influence time range; and travel accident insurance premium
rate computation means for computing an insurance premium rate where
the earthquake occurrence probability increase around any one of
a moonrise and a moonset is reflected, by multiplying together the
set moon influence coefficient, and an insurance premium rate where
the earthquake occurrence probability increase around any one of
a moonrise and a moonset is not reflected.
[0020] In the insurance premium rate setting support system, on
condition that, with a location covered by earthquake insurance
being inputted, the location is specified, by any one of an operator
of the system, an user thereof, earthquake insurance covered-location
judgment means described below and the like, as a location (which
is referred to as a "probability-increase/strong-influence
location" in this specification) located in any one of an area
for which an earthquake occurrence probability has increased to
not less than a predetermined probability based on estimated strain
accumulation along at least one of a plate boundary and a fault
due to a period having elapsed since a past earthquake occurrence,
and an area having a risk of being strongly influenced by an earthquake
occurrence in the area for which the earthquake occurrence probability
has increased to not less than the predetermined probability, the
probability-increase/strong-influence location coefficient setting
means sets a current probability-increase/strong-influence location
coefficient for the location by obtaining it based on a predetermined
function whereby the coefficient increases in a stepwise manner
following an increasing characteristic of an earthquake occurrence
probability with respect to a period having elapsed since the past
earthquake in the location covered by the earthquake insurance.
Subsequently, the earthquake insurance premium rate computation
means computes an insurance premium rate where the increase of the
earthquake occurrence probability based on the estimated strain
accumulation is reflected, by multiplying together the set probability-increase/strong-influence
location coefficient and an insurance premium rate for the location
set where the earthquake occurrence probability increase, based
on the estimated strain accumulation, is not reflected.
[0021] Thus, according to the insurance premium rate setting support
system of this invention, in a case where a location covered by
an earthquake insurance added to fire insurance or independently
contracted is a probability-increase/strong-influence location located
in any one of an area for which an earthquake occurrence probability
has increased to not less than a predetermined probability based
on estimated strain accumulation along at least one of a plate boundary
and a fault due to a period having elapsed since a past earthquake
occurrence, and an area having a risk of being strongly influenced,
due to a type of the ground thereof, by an earthquake occurrence
in the area for which the earthquake occurrence probability has
increased to not less than the predetermined probability, an insurance
premium rate for the location where a degree of the increase of
the earthquake occurrence probability is reflected is computed.
Therefore, it becomes possible to reasonably and effectively set
insurance premium rates of earthquake insurance based on earthquake
occurrence probability evaluations.
[0022] Note that, in the insurance premium rate setting support
system of this invention, earthquake insurance covered-location
judgment means may be provided. The earthquake insurance covered-location
judgment means judges, for example, from previously provided data,
whether an inputted location covered by earthquake insurance is
a probability-increase/strong-influence location located in any
one of an area for which an earthquake occurrence probability has
increased to not less than a predetermined probability based on
estimated strain accumulation along at least one of a plate boundary
and a fault due to a period having elapsed since a past earthquake
occurrence, and an area having a risk of being strongly influenced
by an earthquake occurrence in the area for which the earthquake
occurrence probability has increased to not less than the predetermined
probability. Subsequently, if a result of the judgment is that the
location is a probability-increase/strong-influence location, the
earthquake insurance covered-location judgment means designates
the intent to the probability-increase/strong-influence location
coefficient setting means. By configuring the system as above, it
becomes possible to easily and accurately judge whether or not an
inputted location covered by earthquake insurance is a probability-increase/strong-influence
location, and then, if the judgment result is that the location
is the probability-increase/strong-influence location, to address
that intent to the probability-increase/strong-influence location
coefficient setting means.
[0023] In the insurance premium rate setting support system of
this invention, insurance premium rate selection-purpose output
means may be provided. The insurance premium rate selection-purpose
output means outputs the insurance premium rate computed by the
earthquake insurance premium rate computation means, and the insurance
premium rate where the increase in the earthquake occurrence probability
is not reflected, and thereby allows a purchaser of earthquake insurance
to purchase insurance with one of the foregoing insurance premium
rates, the one being spontaneously selected by the purchaser. By
configuring the system as above, a purchaser of earthquake insurance
is allowed to purchase insurance with an insurance premium rate
selected from these insurance premium rates based on a judgment
at the purchaser's own risk. Note that, normally, when one selects
in earthquake insurance an insurance premium rate where an increase
in an earthquake occurrence probability is not reflected, an upper
limit of an insurance payout is suppressed to an amount lower than
that in the case of selecting an insurance premium rate where the
earthquake occurrence probability increase is not reflected.
[0024] In an insurance premium rate setting support system, when
a time range of traveling in a covered journey of travel accident
insurance is inputted, the time range judgment means judges whether
the inputted time range of traveling in the covered journey in the
travel accident insurance is a moon influence time range which is
within a predetermined time period, around any one of a moonrise
and a moonset in a location visited during the traveling, during
which an earthquake occurrence probability increases to not less
than a predetermined probability. Then, if the time range of traveling
is the moon influence time range, the travel accident insurance
premium rate computation means computes an insurance premium rate
where the earthquake occurrence probability increase around the
one of the moonrise and the moonset is reflected, by multiplying
together: a moon influence coefficient set by the moon influence
coefficient setting means for setting a moon influence coefficient
of the journey; and an insurance premium rate where the earthquake
occurrence probability increase around the one of the moonrise and
the moonset is not reflected.
[0025] Thus, according to the insurance premium rate setting support
system of this invention, in the case where a time range of traveling
by means of any one of land transport, water transport and an airplane
in a journey covered in travel accident insurance is a moon influence
time range falling in a predetermined time period, around any one
of a moonrise and a moonset in a location visited during the traveling,
during which an earthquake occurrence probability increases to not
less than a predetermined probability, an insurance premium rate
where the earthquake occurrence probability increase is reflected
is computed. Therefore, it becomes possible to reasonably and effectively
set insurance premium rates of travel accident insurance based on
earthquake occurrence probability evaluations.
[0026] Note that, in the insurance premium rate setting support
system of this invention, the moon influence coefficient setting
means may be one which sets the moon influence coefficient based
on a predetermined function whereby the coefficient decreases in
a stepwise manner following a decreasing characteristic of an earthquake
occurrence probability with respect to a periodical distance from
each of a moonrise and a moonset. By configuring the system as above,
it becomes possible to determine insurance premium rates where degrees
of earthquake occurrence probability increases are reflected.
[0027] Furthermore, in the insurance premium rate setting support
system of this invention, insurance premium rate selection-purpose
output means may be provided. The insurance premium rate selection-purpose
output means outputs the insurance premium rate computed by the
travel accident insurance premium rate computation means, and the
insurance premium rate where the earthquake occurrence probability
increase is not reflected, and thereby allows a purchaser of the
insurance to purchase it with one of the foregoing insurance premium
rates, the one being spontaneously selected by the purchaser. By
configuring the system as above, a purchaser of the insurance is
allowed to purchase it with an insurance premium rate selected from
these insurance premium rates based on a judgment at the purchaser's
own risk. Note that, normally, when one selects, in travel accident
insurance, an insurance premium rate where an increase in an earthquake
occurrence probability is not reflected, damages from an earthquake
are excluded from coverage of the insurance.
BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS
[0028] FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing a configuration of one
example of insurance premium rate setting support systems of this
invention by way of functional blocks.
[0029] FIG. 2 is a flowchart showing a flow of processing in an
insurance premium rate setting support system of the above example.
[0030] FIG. 3 is a characteristic chart showing chronological changes
since the year 1923 in a probability that an earthquake of the Great
Kanto Earthquake level occurs in the South Kanto area.
[0031] FIG. 4 is an illustration showing distributions of areas
having relatively high probabilities of earthquake occurrence throughout
Japan.
[0032] FIG. 5 is an illustration showing a conventional method
of setting insurance premium rate for earthquake insurance.
[0033] FIG. 6 is a relation chart showing a stepwise function,
in the insurance premium rate setting support system of the above
example, for a probability-increase/strong-influence location coefficient
C1 along a curve for the earthquake occurrence probability shown
in FIG. 3.
[0034] FIG. 7 is a relation diagram showing occurrence frequencies
of earthquakes at the magnitudes not less than 7 with respect to
visual positions of the moon during the years from 1945 to 1966.
[0035] FIG. 8 is a relation diagram showing occurrence frequencies
of earthquakes at the magnitudes not less than 7 with respect to
visual positions of the moon during the years from 1900 to 1944.
[0036] FIG. 9 is a relation chart showing a stepwise function for
a moon influence coefficient C2 along a curve for a probability
based on the occurrence frequencies of earthquakes at the magnitudes
not less than 7 with respect to visual positions of the moon shown
in FIGS. 7 and 8.
DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION
[0037] Hereinbelow, an embodiment of this invention will be described
in detail by way of an example based on the drawings. Here, FIG.
1 is a block line diagram showing a configuration of one example
of insurance premium rate setting support systems of this invention
by way of functional blocks, and FIG. 2 is a flowchart showing a
flow of processing in an insurance premium rate setting support
system of the example. In these drawings, reference numeral 1 denotes
the insurance premium rate setting support system of the example.
[0038] The insurance premium rate setting support system 1 is constituted
of a regular computer having a central processing unit (CPU), a
basic memory unit such as a memory, an additional memory unit such
as a hard disk drive unit, an input unit such as a mouse or a keyboard,
and an output unit such as a display unit. By having the computer
operating based on a predetermined program, the insurance premium
rate setting support system 1 is functionally provided with: an
earthquake insurance covered-location judgment section 2 as earthquake
insurance covered-location judgment means; a probability-increase/strong-influence
coefficient setting section 3 as probability-increase/strong-influence
coefficient setting means; an insurance premium rate computation
section 4 as earthquake insurance premium rate computation means
and travel accident insurance premium rate computation means: a
traveling time range judgment section 5 as traveling time range
judgment means; a moon influence coefficient setting section 6 as
moon influence coefficient setting means; and an insurance premium
rate selection-purpose output section 7 as insurance premium rate
selection-purpose output means.
[0039] Note that, as a computer as described above, what is called
an insurance application system constituted of a workstation, a
minicomputer, a server, or the like, and a home-use desktop or notebook
personal computer (PC), which can be used for insurance applications
through the Internet, can be used.
[0040] Here, the earthquake insurance covered-location judgment
section 2 judges, from previously provided data, whether or not
an inputted covered location of earthquake insurance is a "probability-increase/strong-influence
location" located in any one of an area (a seismic gap area)
for which, up to the present time, an earthquake occurrence probability
has increased to not less than a predetermined probability based
on estimated strain accumulation along at least one of a plate boundary
and a fault due to a period having elapsed since a past earthquake
occurrence, and an area having a risk of being strongly influenced
by an earthquake occurrence in the area for which the earthquake
occurrence probability has increased to not less than the predetermined
probability. Subsequently, if a result of the judgment is that it
is a "probability-increase/strong-influence location,"
the earthquake insurance covered-location judgment section 2 designates
the intent to the probability-increase/strong-influence location
coefficient setting section 3.
[0041] Furthermore, if the inputted covered location of earthquake
insurance is designated as a probability-increase/strong-influence
location by the earthquake insurance covered-location judgment section
2, the probability-increase/strong-influence location coefficient
setting section 3 sets a current probability-increase/strong-influence
location coefficient for the covered location of earthquake insurance
by obtaining it based on a predetermined function whereby the coefficient
increases in a stepwise manner following an increasing characteristic
of an earthquake occurrence probability with respect to a period
having elapsed since a past earthquake of the covered location of
earthquake insurance. Then, the earthquake insurance premium rate
computation section 4 computes an insurance premium rate where the
earthquake occurrence probability increase, based on the estimated
strain accumulation, is reflected, by multiplying together the set
probability-increase/strong-influence location coefficient and an
insurance premium rate where the earthquake occurrence probability
increase, based on the estimated strain accumulation, is not reflected.
[0042] On the other hand, the traveling time range judgment section
5 judges whether or not an inputted time range of traveling in a
covered journey of travel accident insurance is a moon influence
time range which is within a predetermined time period around any
one of a moonrise and a moonset in a location visited during the
traveling, during which an earthquake occurrence probability increases
to not less than a predetermined probability. Then, if the inputted
time range of traveling in a covered journey of the travel accident
insurance has been found to be the moon influence time range as
a result of the judgment, the moon influence coefficient setting
section 6 sets a moon influence coefficient for the journey. Subsequently,
the travel accident insurance premium rate computation section 4
computes an insurance premium rate where the earthquake occurrence
probability increase around the one of the moonrise and the moonset
is reflected, by multiplying together the set moon influence coefficient
and an insurance premium rate where the earthquake occurrence probability
increase around the one of the moonrise and the moonset is not reflected.
[0043] The insurance premium rate selection-purpose output means
7 outputs both of the insurance premium rate computed by the earthquake
insurance premium rate computation section 4 and the insurance premium
rate where the earthquake occurrence probability increase is not
reflected, and thereby allows a purchaser of earthquake insurance
to purchase the insurance with one of the foregoing insurance premium
rates, the one being spontaneously selected by the purchaser.
[0044] Processing related to the example will be specifically described
based on FIG. 2 as follows. On an occasion of an application for
earthquake insurance added to a fire insurance contract, the application
is indicated by an arrow of the solid line in FIG. 2. First, in
Step S1, an applicant decides a desired insurance amount with respect
to what is covered by the earthquake insurance, the desired insurance
amount is inputted by the applicant or a representative of an insurance
agency, and furthermore, an area (a location) where a house covered
by the earthquake insurance is located, and the type of house are
inputted. Step S1 is followed by Step S2 where, with reference to
the area where the house is located and to the type of house, the
system of the example sets a basic premium rate, as has been done
to date, in compliance with a predetermined manual based on FIG.
5 and Table 1 shown as above.
[0045] Subsequently, in Step S3, the system of this example, using
the earthquake insurance covered-location judgment section 2, judges
whether or not the inputted location where the house covered by
the earthquake insurance is the probability-increase/strong-influence
location located in any one of: an area (a seismic gap area) for
which, up to the present time, an earthquake occurrence probability
has increased to not less than a predetermined probability (for
example, 0.3) based on estimated strain accumulation along at least
one of a plate boundary and a fault due to a period having elapsed
since a past occurrence of an earthquake having a predetermined
magnitude (for example, a large earthquake having a magnitude not
less than 7); and an area having a risk of being strongly influenced
by an earthquake occurrence in the area for which the earthquake
occurrence probability has increased. The system judges it from
data on a state of chronological changes in the earthquake occurrence
probability given for each location, the data being, for example,
what is shown in FIG. 3 with respect to the South Kanto area.
[0046] Subsequently in Step S4, the system of this example, using
the "probability-increase/strong-influence location coefficient
setting section 3, sets a current probability-increase/strong-influence
location coefficient C1 for the area where the building covered
by the earthquake insurance is located. As shown in FIG. 6, the
system sets the coefficient C1 by obtaining it, for example, in
a manner that C1=1.2 at the time in the year 2004, based on a stepwise
predetermined function whereby the coefficient C1 increases along
an increasing characteristic of an earthquake occurrence probability
with respect to a period having elapsed since the past earthquake
occurrence in the area where the building covered by the earthquake
insurance is located. Subsequently in Step S5, the system, using
the insurance premium rate computation section 4, multiplies (performs
a multiplication of) the previously set basic premium rate by the
probability-increase/strong-influence location coefficient C1 set
in relation to the earthquake occurrence probability in the seismic
gap area. Thereby, the system sets a premium rate (or a premium)
which, while premising a payout from the government, incorporates
marketability. Additionally on this occasion in Step S5, the system,
using the insurance premium rate selection-purpose output section
7, displays, on a screen of the display unit, an illustration shown
in FIG. 4 or conforming to this drawing, status of the probability
shown in FIG. 6, and the like, in order that the applicant can be
allowed to gain deeper understanding of a concept of the premium
determination. Thereby, the applicant is allowed to make an application
for the insurance by selecting a value of the coefficient C1 by
which the basic premium rate is multiplied.
[0047] Specifically, even when purchasing the insurance with a
larger value of the coefficient C1 is preferable after having confirmed
an increase in the earthquake occurrence probability, the purchaser
is allowed to purchase, by the purchaser's own choice, the insurance
with a premium which is the same as in conventional earthquake insurance
and obtained by using a smaller value of the coefficient (C1=1).
On that occasion, it is naturally required to configure as a mechanism
of the insurance one whereby an insurance payout is limited to a
payout limit which is lower than in the case where the coefficient
C1 is made larger than 1 based on the increase in the earthquake
occurrence probability. Otherwise, an insurance payout with the
increased premium may be set with reference to a relation thereof
with the number of purchasers of the insurance. Step S5 described
as above supports an operation where a purchaser sets a selection
and makes an application by providing status of the probability
in FIG. 4 and FIG. 6 displayed on a screen of the display unit,
and furthermore by providing a premium rate amount thereon. Since
earthquake insurance covering a house and home contents, which is
added to fire insurance, tends to become large in insurance amount,
it is assumed that a selection determination only through an operation
on the Internet may be difficult to perform. Therefore, it is considered
that, inevitably, applications for the insurance would be accepted
through insurance agencies in the great majority of cases. Even
in such a case, by having the above presentation on a screen of
a personal computer carried by a sales representative, it become
possible for the system to support insurance premium rate setting
work.
[0048] On the other hand, in the case of travel accident insurance,
in one reason that an insurance amount therefor is relatively small
as compared with insurance covering a house and home contents, a
simple purchase thereof is made possible by a dedicated terminal
apparatus, for example, in an example of life insurance purchased
at a boarding gate at the time of getting aboard an airplane. Additionally,
sales of the insurance are also carried out as an agency operation
by a travel planning company, and furthermore, sales on the Internet
by a PC in a home or the like of an applicant is made possible in
recent years.
[0049] On an occasion of a travel accident insurance application
for which a flow is indicated by an arrow of the dashed line in
FIG. 2, first, in Step S7, an applicant or a representative at a
travel agency inputs, into the system of this example, items determined
by an itinerary of the applicant such as destinations, routes, and
periods. Furthermore in Step S8, traveling means and the like for
which the applicant is going to be covered by the insurance are
selected and inputted into the system. Once the above items are
inputted, in Step S8 here, the system of this example sets a basic
premium rate in compliance with previously provided regular insurance
premium rate setting standards. These inputted items may be explained
to the applicant by the representative at the agency, or, may be
presented by way of charts and tables on a screen of a dedicated
application-purpose terminal apparatus, or of a display unit of
a PC of the applicant through a sale on the Internet. Thereby, the
applicant is allowed to understand, and to make a judgment and a
decision on, contents of the insurance. Note that processing of
the item inputting and the basic premium rate setting can also be
preformed by using a screen presentation on a PC carried by the
agency representative.
[0050] Subsequently, as previously described, in Step S3, the system
of this example judges whether or not each of the destinations and
locations passed in the journey is the probability-increase/strong-influence
location located in any one of: an area (a seismic gap area) for
which, up to the present time, an earthquake occurrence probability
has increased to not less than a predetermined probability (for
example, 0.3) based on estimated strain accumulation along at least
one of a plate boundary and a fault due to a period having elapsed
since a past occurrence of an earthquake having a predetermined
magnitude (a so-called large earthquake); and an area having a risk
of being strongly influenced by an earthquake occurrence in the
area for which the earthquake occurrence probability has increased.
The system judges it from data on a state of chronological changes
in an earthquake occurrence probability given for each location,
the data being, for example, what is shown in FIG. 3 with respect
to the South Kanto area.
[0051] Subsequently in Step S4, the system of this example sets
a current probability-increase/strong-influence location coefficient
C1 for each location of the destinations and areas passed in the
journey. As shown in FIG. 6, the system sets the coefficient C1
by obtaining it, for example, in a manner that C1=1.2 at the time
in the year 2004, based on a stepwise predetermined function whereby
the coefficient C1 increases along an increasing characteristic
of an earthquake occurrence probability with respect to a period
having elapsed since past earthquake occurrences of each of destinations
and locations passed in the journey. Subsequently in Step S5, the
system, using the insurance premium rate computation section 4,
multiplies the previously set basic premium rate by the probability-increase/strong-influence
location coefficient C1 determined in relation to the earthquake
occurrence probability in the seismic gap area. Thereby, the system
sets a premium rate (or a premium) which, while premising a payout
from the government, incorporates marketability. Additionally on
this occasion in Step S5, the system displays, on a screen of the
display unit, an illustration shown in FIG. 4 or conforming to this
drawing, status of the probability shown in FIG. 6, and the like,
in order that the applicant can be allowed to purchase the insurance
by selecting the following value of the coefficient C1 multiplied
to the basic rate. The value of the coefficient C1 is selected from,
for example, the values of 1.2 set as above in consideration of
the earthquake occurrence probability increase, and 1.0 set without
consideration of the earthquake occurrence probability increase.
Note that, in a case where there is no room for selection because
a premium rate is defined in accordance with a premised insurance
system structure, the step may be configured by excluding alternatives
and including only a presentation of explanation contents.
[0052] After having passed through this step, next, the system
of this example, using the traveling time range judgment section
5, obtains, in Step S9, times of moonrises and moonsets, for example,
in Akashi as standards for all locations in Japan, by computing
them, for example, by using the abovementioned astronomical software
("STELLA NAVIGATOR"). Subsequently in Step S10, the system
judges, with respect to each location of the destinations and areas
passed in the journey, whether or not the location is included in
the seismic gap area and, at the same time, a traveling time range
falls within a predetermined time period (for example, as shown
in FIG. 9, within a time range when the moon enters in a visual
range within plus and minus 40 degrees around 100 degrees west,
or within plus and minus 40 degrees around 80 degrees east, from
the true north direction) around a moonrise or a moonset in the
location, during which an earthquake occurrence possibility increases
to not less than a predetermined probability (for example, 1.0).
Then, if the traveling time range falls within the time range, an
earthquake occurrence probability therefor according to an earthquake
occurrence frequency function increases to not less than 0.1. Therefore,
by taking the probability increase into consideration, subsequently
in Step S11, the system, using the moon influence coefficient setting
section 6, sets a value of a moon influence coefficient C2 based
on the traveling time range and a visual position of the moon, for
example, in a manner that C2=1.5.
[0053] A range corresponding to the coefficient C2=1.5 shown in
FIG. 9 indicates a case where plus and minus 3 hours around a moonrise
or a moonset are taken, and this range is set on the basis of positions
around 1/2 of the maximum value of occurrence frequencies taken
for a vertical axis in the drawing, or probabilities of frequencies
in relation to the total number of the studied earthquakes. Note
that values of the coefficient C2 may be set in plural phases based
on a stepwise predetermined function whereby the coefficient C2
decreases along a decreasing characteristic of an earthquake occurrence
probability with respect to a periodical distance from each of a
moonrise or a moonset. Specifically, in a case of traveling by a
Shinkansen train, a function for the moon influence coefficient
C2 may be previously set in a manner that values of a boarding time
range are set differently depending on where, in FIG. 9, the boarding
time range is included.
[0054] After setting the value of the above moon influence coefficient
C2, in Step S12 in the same manner as previously described with
respect to Step S5, the system of this example, using the insurance
premium rate computation section 4, multiplies the previously set
basic premium rate by the moon influence coefficient C2 determined
in relation to the earthquake occurrence probability based on the
above influence from the moon. Thereby, the system sets a premium
rate (or a premium) which, while premising a payout from the government,
incorporates marketability. Additionally on this occasion in Step
S12, the system displays, on a screen of the display unit, status
of the probability shown in FIG. 9 and the like in order that the
applicant can be allowed to purchase the insurance by selecting
a value of the coefficient C2 by which the basic premium rate is
multiplied. The value of the coefficient C2 is selected from, for
example, the values of 1.5 set as above in consideration of the
earthquake occurrence probability increase, and 1.0 set without
consideration of the earthquake occurrence probability increase.
Note that, while insurance payouts and insurance premium rates are
presented in the final step in the flow, it is made possible, in
the system of this example, to take a route for going back to each
of the previous steps in the flow in order that the earthquake occurrence
probability at the present time, time ranges of a moonset and a
moonrise can be confirmed in accordance with a selected alternative.
[0055] As described hereinabove, according to the system of this
example, if a location of a house covered by earthquake insurance
added to fire insurance is a probability-increase/strong-influence
location located in any one of an area for which an earthquake occurrence
probability has increased to not less than a predetermined probability
based on estimated strain accumulation along at least one of a plate
boundary and a fault due to a period having elapsed since a past
earthquake occurrence, and an area having a risk of being strongly
influenced by an earthquake occurrence in the area for which the
earthquake occurrence probability has increased to not less than
the predetermined probability, a insurance premium rate where a
degree of the probability increase is reflected is computed. Thereby,
it is possible to reasonably and effectively set insurance premium
rates of earthquake insurance based on evaluations of the earthquake
occurrence probability.
[0056] What is more, according to the insurance premium rate setting
support system of this example, it is possible to automatically
and accurately judge, for example, from previously provided data,
whether or not a location of a house covered by the earthquake insurance
is a probability-increase/strong-influence location located in any
one of an area for which an earthquake occurrence probability has
increased to not less than a predetermined probability based on
estimated strain accumulation along at least one of a plate boundary
and a fault due to a period having elapsed since a past earthquake
occurrence, and an area having a risk of being strongly influenced
by an earthquake occurrence in the area for which the earthquake
occurrence probability has increased to not less than the predetermined
probability. Furthermore, if a result of the judgment is that it
is the probability-increase/strong-influence location, it is possible
to set the probability-increase/strong-influence location coefficient
C1 in consideration of the intent.
[0057] Additionally, according to the insurance premium rate setting
support system of this example, if a traveling time range of a journey
covered by travel accident insurance is a moon influence time range
which is within a predetermined time period around any one of a
moonrise and a moonset in a location visited during the traveling,
during which an earthquake occurrence probability increases to not
less than a predetermined probability, an insurance premium rate,
for which the earthquake occurrence probability increase is reflected,
is computed. Thereby, it is possible to reasonably and effectively
set insurance premium rates of travel accident insurance based on
earthquake occurrence probability evaluations.
[0058] Moreover, according to the insurance premium rate setting
support system of this example, an insurance premium rate where
an increase in an earthquake occurrence probability is reflected,
and an insurance premium rate where the increase in the earthquake
occurrence probability is not reflected, are presented on a screen
of the display unit, whereby an insurance purchaser can purchase
the insurance with one of the foregoing insurance premium rates,
the one being spontaneously selected by the purchaser. What is more,
the system offers high convenience for purchasers because it can
be applicable to insurance purchase payments through a wide variety
of terminal apparatuses.
[0059] While the detailed description has been given hereinabove
based on the drawings, this invention is not limited to the above
described example, and appropriate modifications thereto can be
carried out as long as the modifications do not depart from the
scope as defined by the attached claims. For example, with respect
to whether or not a location covered by earthquake insurance is
a probability-increase/strong-influence location, the system may
be configured to be one where a representative or the like of an
insurance company or a travel agency, who has been informed of the
location covered by the earthquake insurance by an applicant, checks
that out from a manual, a screen presentation on the display unit,
and the like, and designates the intent to the system. Additionally,
the system may be one where, instead of performing a multiplication
for each case, the insurance premium rate computation section 4
outputs an insurance premium rate by checking that out from a table
previously containing computation results.
INDUSTRIAL APPLICABILITY
[0060] Thus, according to the insurance premium rate setting support
system of this invention, by reflecting increases in earthquake
occurrence possibilities due to strain accumulation, by giving a
focus on a so far unclear correlation between a visual position
and an earthquake occurrence frequency, and by taking them into
consideration, it becomes possible to reasonably and effectively
set insurance premium rates of earthquake insurance and travel accident
insurance. By extension, the system can set more reasonable insurance
premium rates, can promote a feeling of security among insured ones
as a result of risk aversion, and can contribute to reduction of
the financial burden on the government in the mechanism of earthquake
insurance in which the government has no other choice but to be
concerned. |